1 Bn MAUs: Who will be the first to reach this staggering total?

HeyZap have just taken the bold – and very helpful – step to publish what they believe are the most accurate statistics for DAUs and MAUs by both game and developer / publisher on Android.  And wow are they remarkable!  You can find them on trends.heyzap.com and below is a snapshot of the data.


This basically highlights that TeamLava Games, creators of the clearly popular Story series, are getting nearly 75M MAUs per month on Android alone.  Now TeamLava focus on Android, but if you peruse the data you will see that there are a staggering 450 developers with 1M or more MAUs.  Most of these developers also release on iOS.  Looking at the Rovio stats, one can safely double them to include iOS which means they are already exceeding 100M MAUs.  That is incredible.  The success of mobile games is going to dwarf that of social games.

Think about this.  There are currently estimated to be just short of 1Bn smart phones out there and a recent report from Mary Meeker, the very highly regarded analyst for Kleiner Perkins suggests this number will exceed 5Bn in only a few short years.  Conclusion?  The success of mobile games has yet to really even happen and its peak is probably a ‘few’ years off.

So at the F2PSummit, earlier today in London, I was chatting with a couple of well known chaps from the gaming industry, and we came up with a new law.  Oscar’s Law* which states that the number of MAUs achieved by the leading developer will triple every year.  Its a good law, right?  It doesn’t sound ridiculous.  Clearly it needs testing over time but can anyone really argue with it today?  If anything, triple could be an underestimation.  Applying this law means that in roughly 2 years a company will achieve 1Bn MAUs.  It may happen sooner and it won’t be the ceiling.  Lots of media has achieved the Bn mark before (World Cup, Olympics etc) … but never has a single games company done it.  And once one of them has done that several more will achieve it too and who knows where this will stop.

The wave of mobile games is only beginning and its going to be quite a wave.

*Oscar’s Law:  Oscar Clark is a well known chap in UK gaming circles and I am pretty sure in his humility he would suggest this was a group effort but he was the one with the name Oscar and that’s a great name for a law.  Oscar, is keen that we point out that we are not really trying to create a new Moore’s law or anything.  We are gamers after all.

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